Severe weather always poses a threat to North Texas because of our mild climate, but more so during the spring when cold air from the north and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico collides in our atmosphere. It’s vital to understand the severe weather risks in our area and that can mean the level of categorical risks. Whatever news station you watch, they will always use probability forecasts to give us the odds of severe weather and which area has the greatest odds compared to others. It’s extremely important to know these probability levels:
1-MRGL (dark green) - Marginal risk - An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
2-SLGT (yellow) - Slight risk - An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
3-ENH (orange) - Enhanced risk - An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
4-MDT (red) - Moderate risk - An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several super cells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail, or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
5-HIGH (magenta) - High risk - An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes or a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage.